Cotton, which has slumped 54 percent since touching a record, may decline an additional 11 percent as its share of the global textile market dwindles, according to Olah Inc., an apparel manufacturer and consulting group.
Prices may fall to 90 cents a pound “soon” as usage of cotton in clothing, home furnishings and industrial products will fall to 30 percent by Dec. 31 from 40 percent a year earlier, said Robert Antoshak, a managing director for Olah who has been tracking the market for 30 years. The company says its customers have included Gap Inc. and Levi Strauss & Co.
Cotton jumped to a record $2.197 in March on ICE Futures U.S. in New York as adverse weather damaged global crops and economic growth lifted buying from Chinese textile mills. In the U.S., cotton accounted for 18 percent of all fibers used in May, down from 22 percent in December, according to government data.
“Cotton rising to $2 did some irreparable damage to demand,” Antoshak said yesterday in an interview in New York. “Companies began using more blends everywhere and we saw that happen especially in home textiles.”
Demand from China, the world’s biggest importer, may weaken as high costs encourage consumers to switch to cheaper synthetic fibers, said Chen Tao, the chairman of Louis Dreyfus (Beijing) Commodities Trading Co., on July 6 in Dalian. Imports by China fell 27 percent in May, according to customs data.
Cotton for December delivery rose by the exchange limit of 4 cents, or 4.1 percent, to settle at $1.008 yesterday on ICE. Prices fell 12 percent last month, the third straight drop.
“With demand declining, the weakness will continue short term as prices are still high compared to 60 to 70 cents that cotton traded at for a very, very long time,” Antoshak said.
